|Pundits Weigh in on Election Results|
|May 6, 2005 - Martín Paredes|
The El Paso Tribune asked local political pundits what their predictions
are for Saturday’s elections results. The pundits were asked who would
be the winner in each race and in which district they expected a run off
in. As expected, two of the races resulted in various scenarios while a
third race vacillated between an outright win for the incumbent and a
run-off against a challenger. The pundits were promised anonymity in
order to get their true feelings for each of the races. The results are
presented in an aggregate format.
The Mayor’s race
There was no dissention among the pundits surveyed when it came to the Mayoral race. They were all in agreement with the incumbent, Mayor Joe Wardy having a clear victory on Saturday over his challengers. Almost all universally agreed that challenger John Cook would come in a distant second while challenger Carmen Rodriguez garners no more than 10% of the total vote. Challengers Perez and Carroll garner no more than 2% of the vote each.
The pundits were divided on whether District 1 would end in a run-off on Saturday night. Most agree that Susan Austin does not have a clear win and is expected to go into a run-off against challenger Roy Gray. There was a small dissention in a small group of the pundits had Austin win while another pundit expected a run-off between Austin and Morgan-Lilly.
As expected, District 2 drew the most dissention among those polled. But most of the pundits agreed that ultimately the incumbent, Robert A. Cushing, would be victorious in the end. Of those surveyed, only one showed Suzie Byrd as a clear winner, while another showed Cushing as a clear winner without a run-off. The others all expected a run-off between Cushing and one of his challengers with a Cushing-Byrd run-off as the most likely scenario among the pundits that picked a run-off in this race.
In District 3, the pundits gave incumbent Alexandro Lozano a clear victory over his challengers. Only one pundit expressed a run-off between Lozano and Medina.
With no incumbent in play, District 4 seems to have the pundits all over the place in regards to scenarios for this race. The only contenders which were picked as possible outright winners are Tony Lewis or Melina Castro. However most of the pundits surveyed expected a run-off scenario in this race. The two possibilities are a Lewis-Tilghman or a Lewis-Castro runoff.
All the pundits gave incumbent Presi Ortega a clear win over his challengers. One pundit expressed to the El Paso Tribune that “Ortega has no real challenger in this election”.
Likewise, all of the pundits universally agree that Paul Escobar is the clear winner on election night.
In District 7, the majority of the pundits gave the victory to incumbent Vivian Rojas without a run-off, although there was much dissention among those surveyed. The dissenters all had Rojas winning after a run-off against her challengers with the challengers encompassing at least one in each scenario.
Although all pundits surveyed expressed, without reservation, that incumbent Anthony Cobos would be the eventual winner, they all felt that the race will be tight all night long with the outcome not known until the final tally is in. They all expect Anthony Cobos to be the victor by night’s end.
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